Anthropogenic or human-caused Global Warming theory (AGW) holds that fossil fuels cause an increase in total CO2 which in turn causes an increase in global temperature. In fact, UN IPCC and others hold that human CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are causing MOST of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. In other words, A causes B which causes C, or so AGW theory holds.
However, Professors Jamal Munshi and Murry Salby and others have clearly shown that there is no correlation between fossil fuel emissions and CO2 emissions. And, you can simply prove it to yourself instead of believing any expert.
Download the Keeling labs data from the Mauna Loa into a standard MS Excel spreadsheet. Conveniently, the Mauna Loa data is already posted in unseasonalized form. Use the standard built-in statistics and math tools. Look at first derivatives, second derivatives and compare linear least squares fits for different time periods. When you examine the CO2 data itself, you will find no significant anomalies, despite the widely estimated 15% annual increase in fossil fuel emissions, gigatons per year, since 2000. Try it.
Since there is no correlation between A and B, then A cannot be causing C. In other words, fossil fuel emissions cannot be causing significant temperature change.
A correlation does not prove a cause and effect relationship between two variables. However, if there is a cause and effect relationship, then there must be a correlation; there are no exceptions to this rule.
Since the fossil fuel contribution is too small to detect in the overall trend, we do not have data that might inform whether the anthropogenic fraction is so small that it is insignificant, lost in the noise of the massive flux of global CO2 emissions and absorptions by nature, or alternatively whether the carbon sinks, sources and balance are adjusting to the injection of gigatons CO2 emissions of fossil fuels, or some combination of these two alternatives.
Professor Munshi concluded, …“We find that detrended correlation analysis of annual emissions and annual changes in atmospheric CO2 does not support the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis because no evidence is found that changes in atmospheric CO2 are related to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. These results are consistent with prior works that found no evidence to relate the rate of warming to the rate of emissions (Munshi, The Correlation between Emissions and Warming in the CET, 2017)(Munshi, Long Term Temperature Trends in Daily Station Data: Australia, 2017)(Munshi, Generational Fossil Fuel Emissions and Generational Warming: A Note, 2016)(Munshi, Decadal Fossil Fuel Emissions and Decadal Warming: A Note, 2015)(Munshi, Effective Sample Size of the Cumulative Values of a Time Series, 2016)(Munshi, The Spuriousness of Correlations between Cumulative Values, 2016).
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