Rate of increase in C-19 deaths in U.S. declined versus previous week

Comparing the rate of deaths from C-19 in the US week over week, the rate of growth of deaths declined from 620% last week to 153% this week.  The rate of deaths is still growing in the US.  Deaths more than doubled in the last 7 days.  But 153% growth is better than 620% growth.  The curve is flattening.  We need to keep doing what we are doing until the growth rate is 0% or turns negative.  We are not out of danger yet.

Corona growth 11Apr20

Data source:


Death stats are the best stats we have and they are pretty good. It is the most reliable data available. Docs and hospitals report deaths routinely…the measurement system is in place. It is not important whether the person died solely because of C-19…because we can never be certain of cause of death even if each dead patient had an full autopsy (which would be impossible.) On the other hand, if they died AND tested positive, we have a reliable statistic which we can then compare with ongoing statistical death rate trends from other diseases.

It is not necessary to have an independent variable to do reliable statistics, in fact that almost never happens. Statistics requires reliable, reproducible sampling. Statistics on new C-19 cases, infection rate, recovery rate etc are skewed by variability in the availability of tests, lack of knowledge about symptom-free transmission, re-infection rate, mutation rate, date of first community transmission, etc.


About budbromley

Bud is a retired life sciences executive. Bud's entrepreneurial leadership exceeded three decades. He was the senior business development, marketing and sales executive at four public corporations, each company a supplier of analytical and life sciences instrumentation, software, consumables and service. Prior to those positions, his 19 year career in Hewlett-Packard Company's Analytical Products Group included worldwide sales and marketing responsibility for Bioscience Products, Global Accounts and the International Olympic Committee, as well as international management assignments based in Japan and Latin America. Bud has visited and worked in more than 65 countries and lived and worked in 3 countries.
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