US Fourth National [Climate] Assessment

Here is another critique of the US Fourth National [Climate] Assessment. This critique is by SEPP.org (Science and Environmental Policy Project), a non-profit started by S. Fred Singer, one of the founders of the U.S. satellite networks. This critique is written by SEPP’s president Ken Haapala. Ken lays on a lot of well-deserved sarcasm.

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The US Fourth National Assessment: [link below] During the US government transition to the Trump administration the U.S. Global Change Research Program (US GCRP) released a report Called the Climate Science Special Report. Formed in 1989, according to its web site the USGCRP is mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human – induced and natural processes of global change.”

At the time the Climate Science Special Report was released, there was no head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy or scientific advisor to President Trump, and
his nomination of meteorologist Kelvin Droegemeier to the post has yet to be confirmed. Thus, the report was signed off by a bureaucratic scientist, without any accountability.
The report claims to be “an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States.” For some reason the authors of the report do not realize that in reporting “to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change” natural climate change exists. Maybe they do not realize that natural variation such as ice ages may be a part of global change.

USGCRP Prophecies: On November 23, the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released the second volume of its two part series on human caused global warming. The first volume. The “Climate Science Special Report (CSSR)” supposedly discussed the physical science but was largely confined to projections from poorly tested global climate models and physical events unrelated to increasing carbon dioxide. The current release came in time for the upcoming 24th Conference of Parties (COP-24) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Katowice Poland. (http://sdg.iisd.org/events/unfccc-cop-24/ Announcement of the UN climate conference)

According to official announcements, this conference will additionally include “the 14th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) and the third part of the first session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA1-3)” – international bureaucratic science at its best. Unlike the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which supposedly provides scientific guidance on human caused variations to climate, the USGCRP is obligated to provide scientific guidance on both human – caused and natural climate change. The USGCRP has conveniently forgotten the part concerning natural climate change. In the current report, the USGCRP avoids discussing nature and the need to substantiate its claims with physical evidence by stating: “However, the assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.”

Overview Chapter 1 p.1.

History is to be forgotten. In short, physical evidence cannot contradict USGCRP projections / predictions. The USGCRP created an illusory climate using complex climate models without a physical basis. As such, the entire 1100 – page report can be viewed as an assembly of prophecies that may or may not occur in the next 25 to 100 years – no contradictory evidence needed. Only the evidence presented in the USGCRP report is valid. This attitude reflects the status of science in the parts of the 13 federal government agencies that participated in the report: Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Energy, Health & Human Services, Interior, State, Transportation, Environmental Protection Agency, National Aeronautics & Space Administration, National Science Foundation, Smithsonian Institution and U.S. Agency for International Development. Hopefully, the entire agencies will not base policies on long-term prophecies from poorly tested models. For example, the Department of Defense needs to defend the country against real threats, not imaginary ones. According to the report, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the Department of Commerce, is responsible for the organization and administration of the report. Perhaps the claims without hard evidence to support them should not be a surprise. For some years, NOAA has been prophesizing sea level rise far beyond anything that can be concluded from actual measurements, to include that sea levels will rise exponentially (ever more rapidly). Who said bureaucrats don’t have imagination?

Ironically, immediately prior to the new release, the Northeast US experienced, perhaps, the coldest Thanksgiving in 100 years.

[Bud edited out several paragraphs for brevity. Let me know if you want the entire article.) Continuing with Haapala critique…]

Humanity evolved in the tropics about 200,000 years ago during periods of extreme climate change. The current warm period, the Holocene Epoch, started about 11,700 years ago.

According to the International Commission on Stratigraphy, the earth has experienced three periods of climate change since emerging from the depths of the last Ice Age into the Holocene Epoch.

Agriculture began during the Greenlanddian Age, the warmest time of the Holocene Epoch. Civilization began during Northgrippian Age, warmer than today, about 8200 to 4200 years ago.

During the subsequent cooling about 4200 years ago, humanity suffered and cultures disappeared. These changes appear to be unrelated to carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet the USGCRP declares that climate has been stable for 12,000 years and humanity is threatened by global warming from CO2?

The Fourth National Climate Assessment offers no hard evidence, just vague assertions and claims that past climate change is no evidence about future climate change. It earns the distinction that it does not meet the standards of the Information Quality Act, and each page should be stamped: “Based on speculation, not hard evidence.”
See http://www.stratigraphy.org/index.php/ics-chart-timescale

Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States
The National Climate Assessment (NCA) assesses the science of climate change and variability and its impacts across the United States, now and throughout this century.
By Multiple Writers, U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

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About budbromley

Life sciences executive, retired
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