“Modelling Madness” .. a reblog

Complex computer models are continually being used to generate incessant alarms about the future for our environment and resources – climate, weather, minerals, oil, food, water, pollution and the oceans.

Every year the computers get more expensive, and the models more complex, but their doomsday forecasts still fail.

Models are simple in principle. They have a formula linking two or more variables, such as rainfall in a catchment area and the water level in a dam. The model can tell us that 200mm of rain will fill the dam. But a few failed forecasts will result in a more complex model that tries to take account of obvious complicating factors such as ground cover in the catchment area and the rate of precipitation. Then more rainfall recording stations will be needed, and more complicating factors will be identified . . . needing a bigger computer.

Imagine the complexity of a mathematical model designed to forecast something as simple as next Wednesday’s weather in Brisbane, Birmingham or Boston.

The British Met Office owns Britain’s most powerful super computer. It can make 1,000 billion calculations every second while consuming more electricity than a small town. The Met claimed that it “will enable the Met Office to deliver more accurate forecasts, from hours to a century ahead”. Some 400 climate high priests attend this electronic monster. But it has totally failed to forecast several frigid European winters because the model makers believe their own story and have programmed the models with a global warming bias. They assume without proof or evidence that carbon dioxide controls global temperature.

The global models of IPCC climateers also have a warming bias and have failed spectacularly to date – their global temperature predictions have been wrong for 17 years straight. 
When do they give up? ~ Viv Forbes 23/4/2014

About budbromley

Life sciences executive, retired
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