No correlation between fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric CO2

Posted on May 6, 2019 by budbromley
“This short note is a validation of a previous work which found no correlation between changes in atmospheric CO2 and fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. In this work, this result is tested for robustness with respect to sample period selection within a range of data availability. A resampling procedure similar to bootstrap is used. Resampling ensures that the failure to find a correlation is not an artifact of the sample period chosen. The results validate the robustness of the previous finding and imply that there is no evidence that atmospheric CO2 is responsive to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale net of long term trends. This result is robust. It holds for all possible combination of years in the study period 1958-2015 1 .”
~ RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS: PART 2, by Professor Jamal Munshi.
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Responsiveness of Atmospheric CO2 to Anthropogenic Emissions: by Professor Jamal Munshi

Posted on May 1, 2019 by budbromley

The paper below is exceptionally informative science by Professor Jamal Munshi.  The examples used are helpful to understanding the statistical tools used.  Since this work only involves two components of a single climate variable, CO2, the many other climate variables cancel out and may be ignored for the purpose of this work.  This is extremely important because simultaneity bias, which should always be removed from the many entangled, interdependent climate variables but unfortunately has been rarely considered in climate studies, requires difficult math including many assumptions and uncertainties, which are not needed in this method.  This is a home run.

Summarizing, the human contribution to CO2 by burning fossil fuels is so small that it has no measurable effect on the overall natural growth rate of CO2. By logical inference, human CO2 cannot have any measurable effect on global temperature.

Dr. Munshi is Professor Emeritus at Sonoma State University.  He taught applied statistics in the Business Administration department.  He earned a BS Chemical Engineering at San Jose State University, MS Chemical Engineering Colorado School of Mines, and PhD from University of Arkansas.

I have copied below only the abstract, introduction and conclusions.  I strongly encourage you to take the time to read and consider the other sections of this excellent and brief paper including the excellent graphics and references. A link to the online paper is below where you can download a pdf version.

Bud

 

RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS:

A NOTE
JAMAL MUNSHI

8/8/2015, Revised 12/13/2015

ABSTRACT: A statistically significant correlation between annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the annual rate of accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere over a 53-year sample period from 1959-2011 is likely to be spurious because it vanishes when the two series are detrended. The results do not indicate a measurable year to year effect of annual anthropogenic emissions on the annual rate of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere.1

  1. INTRODUCTION

The theory of anthropogenic global warming is that since 1750, human activity, involving the use of fossil fuels, the manufacture of cement, and changes in land use, has been injecting an artificial flow of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere at such an accelerated rate that it has overwhelmed nature’s delicate carbon balance and caused a steadily rising unnatural and unprecedented accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. The change in atmospheric composition has enhanced its greenhouse effect causing surface temperatures to rise unnaturally and dangerously and threaten catastrophic consequences in terms of climate change (Hansen, 2006) (IPCC, 2007) (IPCC, 2014) (Plass, 1956). An important policy implication is that since these changes were created by artificial means they can also be moderated by artificial means simply by making significant reductions in our emissions of CO2 (IPCC, 2014).

Since the recent accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere is ascribed solely to human emissions, a testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming is that there should be a close correlation between the rate of anthropogenic emissions and the rate at which CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere; and this correlation should be observable at the inter-annual frequency level (Patra, 2005) (Raupach, 2008) (Keeling, 2001) (Plass, 1956) (Lorius, 1990). This means that, net of long term trends, we should find that years of higher annual emissions should correspond with years of greater annual increase in atmospheric CO2 and years of lower emissions should correspond with years of lower rates of accumulation of atmospheric CO2. In this short note, we test this hypothesis by applying detrended correlation analysis, a tool that is often used by financial analysts to detect higher frequency changes net of long term trends (Prodobnik, 2008) (Granger, 1964) (Haan, 2002). The method tests the relationship between two variables that share a common direction in their long term drift in time by removing the drift component and comparing the detrended series in terms of correlation at shorter intervals. When applied to atmospheric CO2, this procedure shows that the correlation between the annual rate at which anthropogenic emissions are introduced into the atmosphere and the annual rate at which CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, though significant, does not survive into the detrended series and is therefore likely to be spurious or an artifact of the common direction of their long term drift in time to which no anthropogenic cause can be ascribed.

………………..

  1. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

A necessary condition for the theory of anthropogenic global warming is that there should be a close correlation between annual fluctuations of atmospheric CO2 and the annual rate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Data on atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic emissions provided by the Mauna Loa measuring station and the CDIAC in the period 1959-2011 were studied using detrended correlation analysis to determine whether, net of their common long term upward trends, the rate of change in atmospheric CO2 is responsive to the rate of anthropogenic emissions in a shorter time scale from year to year. It was found that the observed correlation between these variables derives solely from a common direction in their long term trends and not from a correspondence in their annual fluctuations. As a corollary to this finding, a further study reveals that change in atmospheric CO2 is responsive to surface temperature both in long term trends and in short term annual fluctuations. The results have significant implications for interpreting the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 in terms of the climate system and the theory of anthropogenic global warming.

All data and computational details used in this note may be downloaded from its online data archive (Munshi, 2015).

https://www.academia.edu/14863648/RESPONSIVENESS_OF_ATMOSPHERIC_CO2_TO_ANTHROPOGENIC_EMISSIONS_A_NOTE

 

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The Battle of Britain is now

Posted on April 29, 2019 by budbromley

Hear ye, hear ye! Pat Condell perfectly understands and explains the issue in Brexit, the EU, the UN and globalism…a watershed moment for the people of all nations. 8 minute video published today. Hear ye, hear ye!

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Obama the pathological liar

Posted on April 29, 2019 by budbromley

Here is the pure and complete pathological liar. Learn to recognize it and learn the lesson well.  All the “tells” and signs are there, just like Bubba and Hillary. Learn how he makes you feel, learn that feeling in yourself and trust it so that you can recognize it in the future. Then you can avoid them like the plague.

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Obama agrees with Trump on illegal aliens

Posted on April 27, 2019 by budbromley

 

Obama agrees with Trump on illegal aliens.

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Electric vehicles worse than diesel

Posted on April 22, 2019 by budbromley
Even if CO2 were a climate problem, and it is not, this study from Germany concludes “Electric Vehicles are not a Panacea for Climate Change.” …”the CO2 emissions of battery-electric vehicles are, in the best case, slightly higher than those of a diesel engine, and are otherwise much higher” due to the significant amount of energy used in the mining and processing of lithium, cobalt, and manganese, which are critical raw materials for the production of electric car batteries.
 
Apr 17, 2019
 
“Electric vehicles will barely help cut CO2 emissions in Germany over the coming years, as the introduction of electric vehicles does not necessarily lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions from road traffic. Natural gas combustion engines are the ideal technology for transitioning to vehicles powered by hydrogen or “green” methane in the long term.”
 
“Considering Germany’s current energy mix and the amount of energy used in battery production, the CO2 emissions of battery-electric vehicles are, in the best case, slightly higher than those of a diesel engine, and are otherwise much higher. This has been confirmed by a new study by Christoph Buchal, professor of physics at the University of Cologne; Hans-Dieter Karl, long-standing ifo energy expert; and Hans-Werner Sinn, former ifo president and professor emeritus at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München. The researchers carried out their detailed calculations using the concrete examples of a modern electric car and a modern diesel vehicle. In addition to CO2 emissions from battery production, they looked at alternative energy sources for electricity in order to calculate the impact electric vehicles have on CO2 emissions. They show that even with today’s technology, total emissions from a combustion engine powered by natural gas are already almost one-third lower than those of a diesel engine. “Over the long term, hydrogen-methane technology offers a further advantage: it allows surplus wind and solar power generated during peaks to be stored, and these surpluses will see a sharp increase as the share of this renewable energy grows,” Professor Buchal explains.”
 
“In their study, the authors criticize the fact that EU legislation allows electric vehicles to be included in calculations for fleet emissions with a value of “zero” CO2 emissions, as this suggests that electric vehicles do not generate any such emissions. The reality is that, in addition to the CO2 emissions generated in the production of electric vehicles, almost all EU countries generate significant CO2 emissions from charging the vehicles’ batteries using their national energy production mixes. The authors also take a critical view of the discussion about electric cars in Germany, which centers around battery-operated vehicles when other technologies also offer great potential: hydrogen-powered electric vehicles or vehicles with combustion engines powered by green methane, for instance. “Methane technology is ideal for the transition from natural gas vehicles with conventional engines to engines that will one day run on methane from CO2-free energy sources. This being the case, the German federal government should treat all technologies equally and promote hydrogen and methane solutions as well,” emphasizes Professor Sinn.”
http://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/presse/Pressemitteilungen/Pressemitteilungen-Archiv/2019/Q2/pm_20190417_sd08-Elektroautos.html
 
Hat tip to F. Bastiat on Twitter and Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge.com
Electric vehicles
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Identity politics?

Posted on April 21, 2019 by budbromley

Identity politics in all of its forms is manipulation.  You are being manipulated.

You must step through the window of identity politics that has been cast before us all, step through that window to personal responsibility, liberty and freedom.

Or else, pick a caste, a rung on the ladder.

But what really matters is which ladder.

And you can only see one ladder.

 

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Wow. Congressman Crenshaw!

Posted on April 20, 2019 by budbromley

Congressman Dan Crenshaw. Wow. You will be glad you watched this 23 minute speech.

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Deleting Hollywood

Posted on April 20, 2019 by budbromley

Deleting all movies by Robert DeNiro, Jim Carrey, Charlise Theron, Baba Streisand, Schwarzeneggar, Harrison Ford, Scarlet Johannson, and more. Lots of disc space now. Normally, I would trade in the old discs for new DVD’s/BluRay movies. But I would not want to pass on this trash to others.

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Go Candace Owens, go!

Posted on April 10, 2019 by budbromley
Powerful….read to the end.
(CNSNews.com) – Candace Owens, director of communications at Turning Point USA and founder of the Blexit movement encouraging blacks to exit the Democratic Party, said Friday that she doesn’t want a Green New Deal, she wants a Black New Deal.
 
“I say I don’t want a Green new Deal. I want a black new deal. And the good news, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is that that actually can be free. It doesn’t cost $93 trillion,” Owens said in a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
 
“First and foremost, stop selling us our own oppression. Stop taking away our self confidence by telling us that we can’t because of racism, because of slavery. I’ve never been a slave in this country. Stop telling us that we need to be obsessing over our past when we should be obsessing over our future and the potential that we have,” she said.
 
“Stop having a culture which tells us that we should want to be hip hop artists and basketball players, when we should want to be doctors and lawyers. We need to stop idolizing people like LeBron James and start idolizing people like Dr. Condoleezza Rice and Dr. Ben Carson,” Owens said.
 
Owens explained her own decision to become a conservative two years ago.
 
“Two years ago, I thought that the left championed minority voices. I thought that the left championed women and always wanted to give us a platform, and then I publicly declared myself a conservative, and I found out the hard way that that’s not exactly true. If you’re a minority in this country, and you don’t subscribe to your emotions. If you want to have intellectual discussions, and you want to have a debate, there’s no place for you on the left. In fact, you will be rejected,” she said.
 
“In fact, they will actively try to destroy you in the way that they have tried to destroy me over the last two years. Many of you guys have followed my political transformation – obviously it started on YouTube with just an idea that maybe conservative principles might be an alternative for the black community,” Owens said.
 
She said she questioned how the left loved Donald Trump before he announced his candidacy for president and then hated him 24 hours later.
 
“I questioned at the time, is it really possible that a man that was loved by the media, Donald J. Trump – they loved him – loved by black America – every hip hop song that I listened to growing up, they wanted to be like Trump. Beyonce and Jay Z were sipping poolside at Mar-a-Lago. He was the dream. Obama said that the American dream was to be like Trump,” Owens said.
 
“Was it really possible that within 24 hours of declaring his candidacy for the White House, he became a racist, bigoted, homophobic, sexist rapist at one point, right? Was that really possible, and I said of course, no that’s it’s possible. There’s absolutely no way that’s possible,” she said.
 
Owens also questioned how the Democratic Party, which “instituted slavery, Jim Crow laws, racial terrorism in the KKK,” had the black vote.
 
“Then I started asking myself some other questions. How on earth is it possible that a party that instituted slavery, Jim Crow laws, racial terrorism in the KKK has the black vote. How is it possible? We gave up culture. The right gave up culture. That’s how the left was able to do this. We gave up culture. Over the course of the last 50 and 60 years, it seems that we’ve given up influencing pop culture altogether on the right, and to a certain degree, that’s completely understandable,” she said.
 
“There isn’t a climate that’s more hostile to conservative principles than the entertainment industry. We see that everywhere. We see that when Joy Behar mocks the vice president for being faithful to his wife – was that what he did? When she mocks the vice president for saying that he loves Jesus Christ, was that what he did?” Owens said.
 
She said liberalism has “infected” and “infested culture at every single layer.”
 
“The left never talks about policies, because their policies have failed black America for the last 60 years. The truth is that the left and the Democrats never, ever, ever want to fix black America, because they stump on our issues year after year,” Owens said.
 
“If they fixed our issues, they would have nothing to stump on or to talk about. They wouldn’t be able to just continually keep calling the other side racist. They want black America to stay broken. They don’t want us to ever have opportunities. They want to continue to give us handouts and not hand ups,” she said.
 
“Never in a million years did the left predict Donald J. Trump, and I’ll tell you what they also are not predicting. They never predicted a minority awakening. They never thought that they could ever lose the black vote ever. They’ve taken our vote for granted for so long, but things are starting to change,” Owens said, adding that it’s starting to change because the truth is on the side of conservatives.
 
“Truth number one, America is not a racist country. The people that continue to tell us that have a vested interest in racism. In fact, they’re actively now importing Nigerians to come do racist acts in this country a la Jussie Smollett, right? This is MAGA country? No, this is your prison cell, and I hope you rot in it, Jussie,” she said, referring to the “Empire” actor, who was accused of faking his own racist attack and charged with filing a police report.
 
“Truth number two, abortion is murder. I ask myself all the time, doesn’t it seem to you that progressive policies always lead to regressive results in the black community,” Owens said. She said black women represent six to seven percent of the population but 40 percent of all abortions performed in the U.S.
 
Owens also condemned Democrat New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for signing into law that allows late-term abortions up to nine months gestation.
 
“We have a sick and twisted Governor Andrew Cuomo celebrating that you can rip fetuses, you can rip infants and babies from their mother’s womb at nine months. It’s absolutely sickening what we’re talking about here. And who is that going to impact the most?” she said. “In New York City – for those of you that don’t know – more babies are aborted than born live.
 
“A hard-hitting truth is that the most unsafe place for a black child is not on the streets. It’s not when they see a police officer. It’s in their mother’s womb,” Owens said. She predicted that the black population would be double what is today if not for abortion.
 
“We’ve lost 18 million black babies since 1973. How’s that for a progressive policy. Is that what they’re celebrating? The left needs God,” she added.
“Truth number three, racially motivated police brutality is a myth. It’s simply a myth, but father absence is not. The number one issue facing black America is that fathers have been removed from the home. It’s that they have been incentivizing father absence,” Owens said.
 
“When the single motherhood rate jumps from 23 percent in the 1960s to a whopping 74 percent today, we have a problem. It’s a problem that the left does not want to talk about. It is the destruction and the breakdown of the family,” she said.
 
“Truth number four, there are 3.6 million black children living below the poverty line. There are 4 million Hispanic children that live below the poverty line, and yet Democrats want us to put illegals first. I say no thank you. I say build the wall,” Owens added.
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