by Jamal Munshi, PhD., Emeritus Professor, Business Administration
“ABSTRACT: The IPCC carbon budget concludes that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissions on a year by year basis. A testable implication of the validity of this carbon budget is that changes in atmospheric CO2 should be correlated with fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale net of long term trends. A test of this relationship with insitu CO2 data from Mauna Loa 1958-2016 and flask CO2 data from twenty three stations around the world 1967-2015 is presented. The test fails to show that annual changes in atmospheric CO2 levels can be attributed to annual emissions. The finding is consistent with prior studies that found no evidence to relate the rate of warming to emissions and they imply that the IPCC carbon budget is flawed possibly because of insufficient attention to uncertainty, excessive reliance on net flows, and the use of circular reasoning that subsumes a role for fossil fuel emissions in the observed increase in atmospheric CO2.”
Full paper in pdf here available for download. Link
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2997420
This important paper by Dr. Munshi explains the necessity to detrend (1) the measured carbon dioxide emissions data and (2) the carbon dioxide emissions estimated to result from use of fossil fuels. It demonstrates how the necessity to detrend (1) and (2) is tested and how to detrend these two data sets. All data sets are available.
“The essence of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is that fossil fuel emissions cause warming by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and that therefore the amount of warming can be attenuated by reducing fossil fuel emissions.”
“…a positive correlation is necessary to establish the causal relationship between changes in atmospheric CO2 and fossil fuel emissions described in the IPCC carbon budget…”
More scholarly papers by Dr. Munshi can be found here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2220942
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