Climate scientists admit their models are wrong

The climate scientists who support human-caused global warming, for example Ben Santer and Michael Mann, authored a peer reviewed paper which acknowledges their climate models are wrong, though their admission is buried in weasel words and technical jargon:
“In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble,” reads the first line of the abstract of lead author, climate scientist Ben Santer’s recent paper in Nature. In other words, the actual temperature trends were less than their models.
Their models cost taxpayers billions of dollars and they want trillions more dollars.
Michael Mann (of the infamous and now repudiated “hockey stick” warming graphic in Al Gore’s science fiction movie) as well as other alarmists are co-authors on the paper. (Link below.) “Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, MODEL tropospheric warming is substantially larger than OBSERVED,” reads the abstract, adding that “model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.” (Capital letters are mine for emphasis.) In other words, their models substantially overestimated global warming.
For three decades, tens of thousands of scientists have been pointing out the large differences between models and actual observations or measurements of climate in thousands of peer-reviewed science papers. This has gotten very limited coverage by mainstream media and is very rarely taught in schools. But, there has been a nearly two-decade-long “hiatus” or “pause” in global warming that climate models have failed to accurately predict. These climate models fail to replicate known climate conditions. This means their models are not validated and should not be used for decisions, much less the expenditure of trillions of dollars.
Since CO2 has been climbing steadily during the same period when there has been this “hiatus” or “pause” in the temperature trend, their hypothesis that human-produced CO2 causes climate change is falsified under the scientific method. The CO2 trend cannot be forcing the temperature trend if the CO2 trend and temperature trend are diverging. Furthermore, there was a well known period of ‘global cooling’ from the late 1940’s to the late 1970’s while at the same time the CO2 concentration trend was increasing. These direct contradictions of the global warming theory have never been adequately explained by global warming alarmists.
And, by the way, the commonly used words “hiatus” and “pause” presume that global warming will re-start at some point in the future. But in fact, the evidence does not support that presumption. The climate could cool instead or it could continue as a flat trend for millions of years, as has happened in the past.
By the way, in the scientific method, it is not the obligation or responsibility of skeptics or “deniers” to falsify or disprove theories proposed by climate alarmists paid by government salaries and grant money. It is the obligation and responsibility of climate alarmists to present evidence and defend their case. The alarmists have failed to do so, despite the expense of billions of dollars of taxpayer money.
Christy graph of models

About budbromley

Life sciences executive, retired
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1 Response to Climate scientists admit their models are wrong

  1. Reblogged this on kommonsentsjane and commented:
    Reblogged on kommonsentsjane/blogkommonsents.

    For your information.



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