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Originally posted on Thongchai Thailand:
? RELATED POST [STATISTICS ISSUES IN CLIMATE SCIENCE] [HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE] ? ? FIGURE 1A: RCP8.5 WITH TIME SCALE = 10 YEARS ? FIGURE 1B: HADCRUT4 WITH TIME SCALE = 10 YEARS ?…
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Originally posted on Thongchai Thailand:
? FIGURE 1: PROPORTIONALITY OF CUMULATIVE WARMING TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS ? FIGURE 2: CUMULATIVE VALUES OF SIGN CONSTRAINED RANDOM NUMBERS The end of education as we know it. ? FIGURE 3: UNCONSTRAINED CUMULATIVE VALUES OF…
The growth rate of deaths from coronavirus in the U.S. is flattening. I have been posting weekly US death rates. We can now officially put to rest comparisons of death rates due to COVID-19 versus influenza versus heart disease, etc. Coronavirus is killing more Americans than the flu, heart disease or any other disease and the corona death rate is still growing. But, the rate of growth is slowing.
On an average week in April, 12,626 people die of heart disease in America, which has been the leading cause of death in America. As of today, 15,031 people died of coronavirus in America in the last 7 days. Coronavirus is increasing the overall death rate from all causes and the rate is still increasing, but the rate of growth of the rate (the 2nd derivative) is slowing. On April 3, the 7 day weekly growth rate versus the previous week was 620%, compared to the 40% growth rate this week versus last week.
Here are 2 pieces of evidence that lockdowns work or save lives. It was/is overly draconian and unconstitutional in implementation and indeed could have been done otherwise and better by trusting citizens, but it does work.
(1) This disease, unlike the recent epidemics, has a high percentage of human-to-human airborne transmission from patients with no symptoms. That is especially dangerous. It could be thought of as the silent killer. Some older people with no other causes have died in one day. New York City is a perfect example of the disaster that results from that. About half (21,291/52,185) of the corona virus deaths in the U.S. have been in New York, almost all in New York City. Reasonable people should ask, the state and the city that should have reacted first and firmly, were very slow. Why? New Jersey is in second place with 5,617 deaths, only one fourth as many as New York.
(2) Vietnam is an example of lockdown isolation and quarantine working very well. There have been no deaths and only a few hundred coronavirus cases in a country of 97 million with a porous border with China. Vietnam’s severe lockdown and quaratine was probably more severe than could be accomplished in western countries, but nevertheless, the evidence is instructive. Vietnam has been very severe in isolating infected individuals and families and tracking backwards to determine the origin of the case.
A preliminary scientific publication reports that the coronavirus has already mutated at least 30 times. A high rate of mutation complicates the use of any potential vaccine. Typically flu mutates 8 to 10 times faster than corona, which means in many cases flu vaccines are ineffective before they are available, and it comes back every year; essentially the vaccine was developed for a virus that has been out-competed by a new set of mutations. Keep a close watch on the rate of mutation of this corona virus.
In the several plagues during the centuries following the fall of the Roman Empire through the 18th century, medicine men and women, healers, witches and doctors would bleed people until they died. That is what the collectivists are doing today. The bankers, politicians, government elites and globalists are like those malpractitioners of old, they want to bleed money (i.e. debt) from economies until they die. They learned nothing good from the Great Depression or the Weimar Republic. Massive government welfare programs and draconian government actions further weaken a weak economy and set the stage for hot war. The collectivist believers in large central government must step back, remove the controls, stop the bailouts and let people do what they need to do. But they will not do that. They will continue to bleed the patient, unless the patient wakes up, realizes what is happening to them, and ejects the witch doctors.
There is empirical evidence that social distancing and lockdowns were needed and worked.
(1) This disease, unlike other recent epidemics, has a high percentage of human-to-human airborne transmission from patients with no symptoms. New York City is a perfect example of the disaster that results from that.
(2) Vietnam is an example of lockdown isolation and quaratine working well. There have been no deaths and a only a few hundred cases in a country of 97 million with a porous border with China. Vietnam’s severe lockdown and quarantine was probably more severe than could be accomplished in western countries, but nevertheless, the evidence is instructive.
Keep this in mind as we contemplate re-opening for business and life.
It is already clear that the generally accepted model for development of this pandemic (developed by Dr. Ferguson of UK) overestimated the extent of this corona virus pandemic. That model was accepted by most governments and authorities and they have taken serious actions based on the assumed course of development of the pandemic described in the model.
One can argue that the fairly quick reaction by governments and the people reduced the extent, but that is a weak argument since people and finally governments would have eventually reacted to spread of the disease. So, we will never know for sure.
In other words, the end result could have been the same if we had let nature run its course and people reacted in real time as necessary.
And yes, I believe all of that to be true for economics events such as recessions as well as epidemics and pandemics.
Phylogenetic network of 160 SARS-CoV-2 genomes.
A previous paper, Zhou et al. (7) recently reported a closely related bat coronavirus, with 96.2% sequence similarity to the human virus. The sequence of the corona virus 19 at the A node in Wuhan is 96.2% similar to the sequence reported by Zhou et al from a bat in Yunnan Province over 1000 miles from Wuhan. Details in the full paper at the link below.
Node A is the root cluster obtained with the bat (R. affinis) coronavirus isolate BatCoVRaTG13 from Yunnan Province. The other nodes (circles) are mutational derivatives of node A.
Circle areas are proportional to the number of taxa (a), and each notch on the links [tiny hash marks on the lines] represents a mutated nucleotide position. The 161 taxa (160 human viruses and one bat virus) yield 101 distinct genomic sequences.
Sequence is identified by comparison to reference standard sequence . The sequence range under consideration is 56 to 29,797, with nucleotide position (np) numbering according to the Wuhan 1 reference sequence (8). The median-joining network algorithm (2) and the Steiner algorithm (9) were used, both implemented in the software package Network5011CS (https://www.fluxus-engineering.com/), with the parameter epsilon set to zero, generating this network containing 288 most-parsimonious trees of length 229 mutations.
The reticulations (b) are mainly caused by recurrent mutations at np11083.
The phylogenetic diagram is available for detailed scrutiny in A0 poster format (SI Appendix, Fig. S5) and in the free Network download files. (see full paper at the link below.)
Definitions:
(a) Taxa (plural of taxon) are any group or rank in a biological classification (i.e. taxonomy) into which related organisms are grouped, for example, species, families, phylums, orders, genus, race, etc.
(b) Reticulations are the crossing and intersecting net-like patterns. Reticulate evolution, or network evolution, describes the origination of a lineage through the partial or entire merging of two ancestor lineages. Imagine two tree limbs which grew out of a single tree trunk and then later grew back together wholly or partially and a new, third limb emerges or the two limbs could merge into one.
Citation: Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117
The description of the graphic above is by the authors in the paper. I added some definitions for simplicity and understanding.
budbromley 
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