Contrary to what you have probably read, heard or been taught, the addition of human-produced CO2 to the atmosphere by burning natural gas, oil and coal does not increase the global CO2 concentration of the atmosphere.  Nor will sequestration of CO2 reduce CO2 concentration in atmosphere.  The CO2 concentration in air today is the same as it would be if humans never existed.  Henry’s Law controls the concentration of all trace gases in air.  When humans add CO2 to air, it is a disturbance to a natural equilibrium ratio.  When humans remove CO2 from air, it is a disturbance to the natural equilibrium ratio and that CO2 will be replaced into air by emissions from the environment, dominantly from ocean surface. 

According to a study published by consultants McKinsey & Company and supported by the UN IPCC, world banks, WEF, WHO, EPA, U.S. Democrats and the governments of more than 100 nations including the current U.S. administration, $9.2 trillion would be needed annually between now and 2050 to reduce CO2 emissions to net zero CO2 emissions and thereby avoid their acclaimed existential catastrophe.  I and many others have been working for the last several years toward repeal of the U.S. EPA’s Final Endangerment Finding (EF) issued during the Obama administration. This EF claims without validated evidence that CO2 is an endangerment to the public. Scientific evidence and theory invalidates this EF. 

CO2 concentration in air is not controlled by human CO2 emissions, nor are global temperatures controlled by CO2 concentration.  Disturbances to natural equilibrium are restored in proportion to the amount and the time frame of the disturbance.  We demonstrated this in a data science experiment using NOAA Scripps-measured CO2 data  following the 1991 eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippine Island (Bromley & Tamarkin, 2022), https://pinatubostudy.com/pinatuboreport.html

Henry’s Law applies to all gases and all liquids, not only CO2 and seawater.  There is a specific, known Henry’s Law constant (aka a partition ratio or coefficient) for each gas and liquid combination.  These constants are typically looked up in online tables, in reference books, and they can be measured in the laboratory.  There are very many references, for example: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/15/4399/2015/acp-15-4399-2015.pdf

Henry’s Law is the fundamental science underlying the multibillion dollar per year scientific instruments industry of gas chromatography mass spectrometry, aka GC or GC/MS.  This is the preferred method for separating chemical mixtures into individual chemicals so they can be identified, and quantified.  Today, it is the preferred method for process and quality control of most chemical mixtures, for example gasoline, wine, flavors, fragrances, and medicines, etc. 

Henry’s Law is an observational result based on thousands of experiments.  The initial experiments were done by Dr. William Henry in 1803 and published by the Royal Society of London.  As famous physicist Richard Feynman said, if a theory disagrees with experiment, then the theory is wrong; the theory of human-produced CO2 from burning natural gas, petroleum and coal is wrong, dangerously and nefariously wrong. Henry’s Law is neither theory nor hypothesis, it is a Law based on countless experiments and confirmed by multiple theories. 

Henry’s Law defines an equilibrium that is established naturally between a trace gas (like CO2) dissolved in a liquid phase (such as seawater or water in lung or plant tissue) and the same trace gas above the liquid surface.  Henry’s Law applies to all trace gases (such as CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone) within the mixed gas phase (such as air) above the liquid surface.  

Henry’s Law mathematically defines a ratio of the amount (or partial pressure or concentration) of a trace gas dissolved in a liquid surface versus the amount of the same gas within the mixed gas matrix above the surface of the liquid.  For example, the ratio of the molecules of non-ionized CO2 gas in seawater surface versus the molecules of CO2 gas in the air above that sea water surface. At a given temperature, the ratio is a constant for any specified trace gas and liquid combination, the Henry’s Law constant. 

All gases in air are continuously colliding with the surface of the ocean and being absorbed.  Simultaneously, all gases dissolved in ocean surface are being emitted (or evaporated) into air above the liquid.  The ratio of absorption versus emission is the Henry’s Law constant for that gas and liquid combination.  The ratio is Henry’s Law constant.  The ratio changes with temperature because the solubility of all gases in all liquids increases as temperature of the liquid decreases.

The trend in global CO2 concentration in air has been slowly increasing because recently the average surface area of earth above about 25 degrees C has been slowly increasing.  But solar radiation reaching and warming the surface of the earth changes due to various cloud, planetary, solar and cosmic factors. Ultimately, the amount of solar radiation reaching earth’s surface controls the temperature of earth’s surface. CO2 concentration does not control surface temperatures; surface temperatures control CO2 concentration. 

There are some exceptional situations to Henry’s Law, which are important in certain cases.

• Henry’s Law does not apply to concentrated gases or gases under high pressure.  For example, nitrogen in air at ~78% is not easily quantified by Henry’s Law, but trace gases CO2, CO, N2O, O3, CH4, etc are easily quantifiable in local conditions.   
• A corollary to that, gases at very low temperature or at very high temperature are also not easily quantified by Henry’s Law.  
• In practice, the most important exception is that Henry’s Law only applies to the unreacted, non-ionized gas in the liquid phase. Henry’s Law does not apply to any of the reaction products of the gas with the liquid.  For example, when CO2 gas is absorbed into sea water about 99% of it readily ionizes/breaks apart into carbonic acid, bicarbonate ion and carbonate ion.  The Henry’s Law ratio only applies to ratio of unreacted ~1% of CO2 gas in the liquid and the CO2 gas above the liquid. The percentage varies with the local temperature of the surface area.
• Although not an exception, but rather the frequently misunderstood rule, the rate of change of the Henry’s Law constant is determined by the surface area interface between the gas and the liquid at a given temperature. Net flux (absorption minus emission) of the gas is a function of the surface area, surface thickness and gradient across that thickness, at a given surface temperature, and the diffusion constant. Fick’s 1st Law provides the formula for net flux. Units are, for example, moles of CO2 emitted per square mile per hour. The diffusion constant is Graham’s Law: diffusion rate of all gases into all liquid is inversely proportional to the square root of the molecular weight of the gas. Agitation of the surface by winds, waves, currents etc increases the surface area at a given temperature, slightly increases the temperature of the surface, and reduces the additional activation energy required by a gas molecule like CO2 or water vapor to evaporate and escape from the surface.  The rate of change (or slope) of net flux with respect to time is a function of the rate of change of surface area at a given temperature with respect to time.
• pH and salinity also change the partition ratio.  In the natural environment, ocean pH and salinity in general have relatively low variability on average. But, local changes can be significant, for example ocean pH can become more alkaline as plankton blooms, and ocean at an estuary or river mouth can become highly mineralized and saline due to runoff after rain. These conditions alter the ratio of CO2 absorption versus CO2 emission at ocean surface, but when these localized conditions return to normal then the CO2 Henry’s Law constant is restored for the local surface temperature.  

Bud Bromley

October 23, 2024